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Mar 8, 2012

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thumbnail Quake catastrophe like Japan's could hit Pacific Northwest, new data show
Mar 8th 2012, 14:05

A February map from the U.S Geological Survey shows the estimated range of the great Cascadia earthquake of 1700.

By M. Alex Johnson, msnbc.com

A massive earthquake like the one that unleashed a giant tsunami and killed nearly 16,000 people in Japan a year ago not only could happen here in the U.S., but probably will — and relatively soon in terms of seismological history.

The Tohoku earthquake was the most closely monitored in history, yielding an unprecedented breadth of data, geophysicists and seismologists say. And for residents of the Pacific Northwest, the new data should be worrisome.

"It's just like Japan, only a mirror image," said Gerard Fryer, a geophysicist at the University of Hawaii and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

The disaster in Japan occurred because of stress from the Pacific tectonic plate sliding below Japan, according to new research discussed last month at the annual conference of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Vancouver, British Columbia.


The lead researcher, John Anderson, a geophysicist at the University of Nevada-Reno, said the plates locked together, slowly pushing Japan westward.


Ben Gutierrez and Lisa Kubota of NBC station KHNL in Honolulu contributed to this report by M. Alex Johnson of msnbc.com. Follow M. Alex Johnson on Twitter and Facebook.


The plates released catastrophically on March 11, 2011, creating a magnitude-9.0 earthquake and tsunami waves that topped 100 feet, said Anderson, who spent most of the past year in Japan as a visiting research professor in Tokyo.

While most Americans probably think the San Andreas fault running through California poses the greatest threat of unleashing a killer mega-quake, data from the Japanese quake indicate that the distinction actually belongs to the Cascadia fault line, which runs through southern Canada, Washington and Oregon to Northern California, Anderson said at the conference.

USGS earthquake information by state


Biggest threat zones

The biggest threats of a U.S. mega-quake � generally defined as one of magnitude 7.0 or greater � lie along three fault lines:

The Cascadia subduction zone stretches from northern Vancouver Island through Washington and Oregon to Northern California, separating the Juan de Fuca and North America plates. Giant quakes are believed to occur there every 300 to 600 years; the last was Jan. 26, 1700. Recent research suggests the region could have a 37 percent chance of a magnitude-8.2 quake or greater in the next 50 years.

The San Andreas transform fault runs the length of California, separating the Pacific and North American plates. The last mega-quake was in 1906 near San Francisco, but large earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or above are relatively common in historical terms, having occurred as recently as September 2004 near Parkfield.

The New Madrid seismic zone stretches southwest from New Madrid, Mo. (pronounced MAD-rid), and is most active in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee, where it regularly produces small- to medium-intensity temblors. Three magnitude-8.0 quakes are believed to have occurred in the region from December 1811 to February 1812; had Memphis, Tenn., existed at the time, it likely would have been destroyed. Since then, the largest earthquake was a magnitude-6.6 quake in October 1895 near Charleston, Mo.

msnbc.com research/M. Alex Johnson. Sources: NASA Astrophysics Data System, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Oregon State University College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, U.S. Geological Survey.


Like Fryer, he called the Pacific Northwest trench a "mirror image" of the Japanese trench — except potentially even more dangerous.

"In this mirror image, one can see that if the same earthquake occurred in Cascadia, the fault would rupture to a significant distance inland, since the Cascadia trench sits much closer to the coastline than the trench off the coast of Japan," Anderson said.

While some probability models predict that a Cascadia earthquake wouldn't rupture so far under the land, "if it does, the data from the Tohoku earthquake predict stronger ground motions along our West Coast than those seen in Japan," he said.

In layman's terms, what's happening is that the region "is being deformed because the plates are locked together, and the shoreline is sinking and the rest of the thing is being bent," Fryer said in an interview with NBC station KHNL of Honolulu.

Fryer said the big question is not whether a Japan-like quake will happen, but when.

"Where are we here? Are we close or are we not close?" he asked. "I think the suspicion is that it could be sooner rather than later."

Anderson's research supports that conclusion.

Experts generally agree that last great Cascadia earthquake happened on Jan. 26, 1700. It generated tsunami waves that indicated that its magnitude was also about 9.0.

"Earthquakes of this size in the past may have recurred with intervals of as small as about 300 years," Anderson said at the AAAS conference last month. "So it would not be a scientific surprise if such an event were to occur in the near future. If you live in the Pacific Northwest, look at the videos of Tohoku as a reminder to be prepared."

In January, experts discussed lessons from the Japanese earthquake at a conference of the Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup.

The warnings come as the White House is proposing a 2013 budget that would cut $4.6 million from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's tsunami programs. Much of that would come from the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, which funds evacuation maps, training and education efforts — important services given how deeply the Japanese quake and tsunami transformed the science of seismology.

"The Japan earthquake told us that a lot of what we understand about how earthquakes work is wrong," Fryer said. "Do we now have to go back and look at all of our evacuation maps and make sure that they're right? That's a question that's still unanswered, and that question that would be answered with tsunami hazard mitigation program funds."

More on the Japan Quake-Tsunamie from msnbc.com and NBC News:

Thieves steal runner's prosthetic foot, cops say
Mar 8th 2012, 13:51

By Natasha Ryan, KING 5 News

YELM, Wash. -- A theft in Yelm, Wash. has robbed a man of a possession he relies on: his prosthetic running foot.

Zac Vawter's wife, Jen, returned home on Wednesday afternoon after Bible study and noticed she couldn't find her computer, according to police reports.

"Kind of donned on me someone had been in the house," she said.

In the small community, located 20 miles outside Olympia, Wash., Jen says they never lock their doors. In all, the thieves had taken the family's computer, a gun, and a camera -- but the most valuable item stolen from them, the family said, was the prosthetic foot.

"I don't care about all the electronics things. They're easy to replace. But that is fairly expensive to replace," said Zac.

Vawter lost his leg two years ago in a motorcycle crash, and his prosthetic foot has helped him come to terms with it.

"I ran in high school, college...it's a freeing feeling to get out and run," said Zac.

The foot is custom-made for him and isn't worth much to anyone else.

"Can I have it back, please?" he said.

The Vawters say they just put their house up for sale on Craigslist and wonder if that made them a target.  Police are investigating.

More content from msnbc.com and NBC News

thumbnail EXCLUSIVE: The 'lost' cell phone project, and the dark things it says about us
Mar 8th 2012, 12:19

By Bob Sullivan

What would you do if you found a smartphone on the subway or at a coffee shop? If you're like most Americans, you'd rummage through the phone looking for photos, emails and even private banking information. And the chances are only 50-50 that you would try to return the phone.

Computer security firm Symantec Corp. recently conducted an elaborate, first-of-its-kind study on lost smartphones and shared the results exclusively with TODAY and msnbc.com. The company set a trap for human nature, then sat back and watched. The results were not pretty.  

Symantec researchers intentionally lost 50 smartphones in cities around the U.S. and in Canada. They were left on newspaper boxes, park benches, elevators and other places that passers-by would quickly spot them. But these weren't just any phones -- they were loaded with tracking and logging software so Symantec employees could physically track them and keep track of everything the finders did with the gadgets.


Symantec Corp.

Symantec Corp. researchers left this cell phone on a newspaper box in New York City -- then used logging software and GPS to watch what happened next.

To spice up the test, the phones had an obvious file named "contacts," making it easy for any finder to connect with the phone's rightful owner.   But the phones also offered tempting files, with names like "banking information," and "HR files."  

 

Some 43 percent of finders clicked on an app labeled "online banking." And 53 percent clicked on a filed named "HR salaries." A file named "saved passwords" was opened by 57 percent of finders. Social networking tools and personal e-mail were checked by 60 percent. And a folder labeled "private photos" tempted 72 percent.

Collectively, 89 percent of finders clicked on something they probably shouldn't have.

Meanwhile, only 50 percent of finders offered to return the gadgets, even though the owner’s name was listed clearly within the contacts file.

"I wasn't surprised, but I wish I had been,” Kevin Haley, director at Symantec’s security response team, said of the unscientific test. “At the end of the day people’s curiosity is so strong, if you present them with the opportunity, they will do it. You would have hoped most people would have made every effort to return the phone."

It's important to note that most, if not all, of the finders weren’t criminals and did not wake up the day they found the lost phones with the intention of rummaging through someone else's personal information. But the temptation created by finding such a device was apparently too much for most of them -- even for some Good Samaritans who tried to return the phone. The story of one lost phone illustrates this point.

On Feb. 2 at 3:05 p.m., Symantec “lost” a phone in a bathroom at Santa Monica Pier in California. A finder tried to access the phone's contacts application 18 minutes later. Moments later, the finder accessed files labeled “passwords,” “cloud-based docs” and “social networking.”

GPS data indicates the finder moved the phone into a nearby restaurant, then into a mall, and an hour later, to a dog park.  At around 5 p.m., the finder opened the Contacts application three times, even there were only two entries listed in it – and one, clearly including an e-mail address and phone number for the owner.

Then the finder continued rummaging around the device, started the File Manager application, and explored files on the gadget's SD card. 

The phone then made its way through downtown Los Angeles, eventually settling in East L.A., where the finder opened the passwords file three times.  Then, online banking, social networking, contacts, private pix, remote admin and other files were opened in rapid succession. Soon after, the device was plugged into a computer for recharging, and then finally reset to original factory settings, wiping all the logging software off the gadget.

Symantec Corp.

This map shows where one finder moved the phone; a chart on the right shows what apps and files were accessed.

But a guilty conscience eventually won out with this finder. On Wednesday, Feb. 8, nearly a week after the gadget was lost, the finder wrote an e-mail to the  supposed owner. It read:

"Hi. I found your phone at the Santa Monica Pier last Thursday (Feb. 2). I used it for like a week but now I feel bad and want to return it. I'm really sorry. :/  What do you want me to do to return it to you?"

Some might consider the 50 percent return rate a victory for humanity, but that wasn't really the point of Symantec's project. The firm wanted to see if -- even among what seem to be honest people -- the urge to peek into someone's personal data was just too strong to resist.  It was.

"The most stunning thing to me were the people that attempted to open bank account information -  four out of 10 finders. That's, a lot," Haley said.

Another tale of a phone lost near Rockefeller Center in New York City at 4 p.m. on Feb. 2 illustrates this point well.

The finder moved the phone some six blocks north, then repeatedly opened and closed the contacts application, again containing only two entries. One can imagine the finder struggling with his or her conscience like the “Lord of the Rings” character, Gollum, deciding what to do.  Between 4:30 and 6:30 p.m., the finder opened most of the other applications, and took many more glimpses into the “contacts” file. At 10:30, activity on the phone stopped.

Symantec Corp.

This phone was left in a bathroom near Los Angeles.

Suddenly, at 4:03 a.m., the phone was used again by its finder -- this time to peek a view of the “HR salaries” file.

"It's like they woke up out of a deep sleep and said, 'Hey there's salary information on that phone. Let me see if I can access it,'” said Haley.  

At 6:30 a.m., the finder opened the calendar, private pix, social networking, online banking, HR salaries, remote admin, corporate e-mail and passwords. For the rest of the day, there was near continuous rummaging through the phone, including the eventual launch of File Manager to see the entire phone's contents. 

"It's relentless. He can't get into online banking so he goes back to the file that has passwords in it, checks the passwords again and tries again,” Haley said. “He tries to log in remotely to the computer, can't get on so he goes to password to get the password and tries again."

By nightfall, activity on the phone stopped, and it remained relative dormant until it was moved to New York City's Chinatown area at 5:35 a.m. Feb. 9 -- one week after it was lost -- and wiped clean, probably for sale on the black market.

Scott Wright, president of Security Perspectives Inc, helped design the research for Symantec.  One statistically insignificant finding he called attention to: the return rate in Ottawa was 70 percent, highest in the study. The lowest return rate – 30 percent – was in New York City.

“Curiosity is a very powerful thing, especially on a mobile,” he said. “The most surprising thing is how obsessed people became with finding personal information off the phones, with accessing e-mail, accessing social network, private pictures. … People didn't give up. They just kept trying again and again over the course of a week to get access to this data and that really surprised me.”

RED TAPE WRESTLING TIPS

The lesson here is obvious: studies show that half to three-fourths of smartphone users don’t password-protect their phones.  That’s an invitation to disaster. While most corporations force users to password-protect their phone, many personal users think entering a password is a hassle that interrupts their texting habits. 

One lost phone would quickly change that perspective.

After the steady drumbeat of identity theft and lost privacy stories, why would consumers still choose to put their smartphones at risk?

“People haven't thought it through,” Haley said. “Maybe before they had a smartphone, losing an old cell phone was devastating but there wasn't much information on it.  Maybe it’s like the frog in a pot of cold water that’s eventually boiled –  it wasn’t that bad losing their old phone, so people haven't thought through how much information is now on their smart phones and what could happen if they lost it. We hope this research shows what could happen and sticks out in people's minds.”

Even if you are glass-half-full person, and think a lost phone would find its way back to you, if you don’t use a password you’re still putting your data at great risk.

“The moral of the story is that people may offer to give you your device back, but you shouldn't assume they haven't accessed any of their personal or corporate information on the device,” Wright said.

Of course, PIN-protecting your phone may prevent a Good Samaritan finder using “contacts” to find you. So Haley recommends placing contact information on the outside of the phone, perhaps on the case.

Also, consider technology that allows you to wipe the smartphone’s memory clean in case it’s lost. There are also services like Apple’s MobileMe, which let you locate the phone through a Web page; several commercial services offer similar products. 

If you find a phone, the best thing to do is quickly turn it in to the nearest authority – a police officer or the lost & found at the mall, for example. If you really want to gain good gadget karma, and you can determine the service provider, walk it into a nearby Verizon, T-Mobile, Sprint or AT&T store and turn it in there. It’s easy for stores to look up the phone’s serial number and get contact information for the rightful owner.

You might look up the owner on the gadget and send him or her an email. But be realistic about your own human nature. If you don’t think you could resist taking a peek at personal information on the phone, you are probably best handing it off to someone else instead.

*Follow Bob Sullivan on Facebook     
*Follow Bob Sullivan on Twitter.

thumbnail Dramatic end in Tulsa courthouse shooting spree
Mar 8th 2012, 11:36

John Fancher / Reuters

A suspect later identified by police as Andrew Joseph Dennehy holds a gun as Tulsa County sheriff's deputies and other law enforcement officers surround him on the plaza in front of the Tulsa County courthouse in Tulsa, Oklahoma, on Wednesday.

By msnbc.com staff and news services

A 23-year-old man was arrested Wednesday after he opened fire outside the Tulsa County Courthouse, police said. A sheriff's deputy and a bystander were injured.

Police said the man, identified as Andrew Joseph Dennehy, walked into the plaza outside the courthouse and Tulsa City-County Library and began firing into the air. A deputy fired back, police said.


Tulsa County sheriff's Sgt. Shannon Clark said the incident occurred at 2:39 p.m. (3:39 p.m. ET), the Tulsa World newspaper reported.

Clark said a deputy was shot in both hands and both arms and was in surgery Wednesday evening. He didn't know the extent of the injuries to the deputy, whom the department didn't identify.

PhotoBlog: Suspect surrounded by police after Tulsa courthouse shooting

Tulsa Police spokesman Leland Ashley said the gunman, shot in the upper torso, was in critical condition, but the wounds sustained by the deputy and the male bystander were not life-threatening, Ashley said.

A woman, who was not hit by gunfire, was "shaken up" and treated at the scene.

Clark told NBC News on Wednesday that the suspect was in critical condition.

Police spokesman Leland Ashley said Dennehy was considered to be in police custody but hadn't been formally charged.

The sheriff's office told the local FOX23 station that their security procedure was carried out exactly as planned, and that the police officers reacted very quickly.

The courthouse was set to be open as usual Thursday, FOX23 reported.

'Everybody was running'
The Tulsa World reported that a wedding ceremony had just taken place in the plaza when the gunfire erupted.

John Fancher / Reuters

Tulsa County sheriff's deputies and other law enforcement officers secure a gunman on the plaza in front of the Tulsa County courthouse in Tulsa, Oklahoma, on Wednesday.

"The shooter was about 20 feet away from me," Angela Reudelhuger of tulsaweddingminister.com, who had conducted the ceremony, told the Tulsa World. She said the bride and groom's 6-month-old baby was among the wedding guests.

"We just jumped inside [the courthouse], and I yelled at the deputy, 'Somebody's shooting!'" she said.

Glyn Roe, a heating and air conditioning worker from Tulsa who was visiting the library Wednesday, said he saw all the events unfold.

"Everybody was running," Roe said. "I was watching it to make sure he wasn't coming into the library, or I would have started running, too."

Virginia Jones, owner of Downtown Tulsa Tag Agency, where people can update their car licenses, said she and her son were leaving to pick up another child from school when they heard gunfire.

Police officers crouched behind giant planters that dot the plaza when more gunfire erupted.

"It wasn't long after that that police just started coming from everywhere," she said.

More content from msnbc.com and NBC News

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Msnbc.com staff and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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