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Mar 7, 2012

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thumbnail March on pace for record number of twisters, expert says
Mar 7th 2012, 15:28

By Kerrie Cassani, weather.com

March literally roared in like a lion, bringing the number of tornadoes so far this year to around 210. That's three times the average number of tornadoes for this time period.

According to records kept by severe weather expert Dr. Greg Forbes, the average would be 72 tornadoes. When it comes to these severe weather events, Forbes says you can't predict the future based on past events because there are many ingredients that come together to create severe outbreaks. Still the rising numbers 2012 really grab your attention.

"January was one of the most active we've had, February was above average because of the tornadoes at the end of the month, and March started off with a bang, " said Forbes.


Tornadoes can occur at any time of year, however the months with the greatest number of tornadoes overall are normally April, May and June. The peak month for tornadoes is May with an average of more than 300 tornadoes. While we're not seeing that high number yet this month or even so far this year, why are we seeing the increased number of tornadoes so early in the year?

Forbes says there are a number of ingredients coming into play.

"La Nina in the January to April time frame tends to often make it more active but not always. Combine that with the fact that we've had very few major Arctic outbreaks where bitter cold air has come out of Canada and blasted all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico. Without this Arctic air, conditions over most of the country were well above average this winter. When temperatures are warm it's easier to get tornadoes and this trend may continue," Forbes adds.

Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and along the southeast coast of the Atlantic are above average for this time of year, creating more moisture which helps produce fuel for thunderstorms. Forbes says a major change to the upper air pattern can overwhelm these factors.

More Information: Tornado Safety Checklist
More from weather.com

March may be due for a record breaking month of tornadoes based on the odds. The existing March record was set back in 1976 with 180 tornadoes. When you look the chart below, all the other months records were set in the last decade or two.

weather.com

With so many tornadoes adding up in the beginning of the month and many days left in March, it's very possible that this month's old record could be shattered in 2012.

"It wouldn't surprise me if the March record fell. It's been so long, the record is so low, and we're in a warm pattern with strong jet stream winds. If you wanted to make a wild guess, March 2012 might break the old record," Forbes said. "The record is 180 and we already have over 80 tornadoes."

More content from msnbc.com and NBC News

thumbnail Former New Jersey governor goes undercover as homeless man
Mar 7th 2012, 13:37

Former New Jersey Gov. Richard Codey spends a night disguised as a homeless man. WNBC's Brian Thompson reports.

By Brian Thompson, NBCNewYork.com

Former New Jersey Gov. Richard Codey went undercover earlier this week and disguised himself as a homeless person on the streets of Newark, New Jersey's largest city.

"To find a place to take you if you were homeless was impossible, essentially," Codey said.

Most shelters in Newark require applicants to be on government assistance, or at least have an official ID.

For more, visit NBCNewYork.com

After having trouble finding shelter, Codey, who is now a state senator, turned to a resource most homeless people don't have -- a personal connection with the Mental Health Association of Essex County.

The connection put him in touch with case worker Ross Croesmann, who places homeless people in shelters and was able to get Codey into the Goodwill Rescue Mission in downtown Newark at about 9 p.m.

The former governor, who filled the office in 2004 and 2005 after Jim McGreevey resigned in disgrace, has championed the cause of the mentally ill for decades, beginning when he was a state senator.

On Monday night, after an hourlong makeup session to make him unrecognizable, Codey assumed the role of Jimmy Peters, a mentally ill individual who had just been released from the psychiatric ward of a local hospital. (To see the full transformation, here's a Star-Ledger photo essay.)

Croesmann could only get Codey into the shelter for one night, and a telephone survey of other homeless shelters found them even more difficult to get in, according to Codey.

"Sometimes you get in, sometimes you don't," said Bob Davison, executive director of the Mental Health Association of Essex County.

Both Davison and Codey said there are more mentally ill out on the street than institutionalized, after recent cutbacks at both state psychiatric hospitals and in the psychiatric wards at community hospitals.

At the Goodwill Rescue Mission, Codey said he was one of about 20 homeless who slept on bedrolls on the floor of the chapel.

"For me it was tough, I sleep on my side so by 3 a.m. my hip was hurting," Codey said.

Codey, who went undercover as a worker in one state mental hospital and, as governor, slept overnight at another, left later in the morning to return to his life as a state senator.

But he said he will not forget the mentally ill homeless he left behind and will continue to urge the governor and state legislature to find more and better housing for them.

More content from msnbc.com and NBC News

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